Reliable forecasts with the Peter Meier Forecast Model
For economic forecasts for the industry, hpo forecasting relies on the Peter Meier Forecasting Model, named after its founder. The ETH engineer and former CEO of the machine tool manufacturer Starrag AG is the spiritual father of the model used today. It is scientifically based and empirically tested. It was developed with the aim of using a rule-based approach to forecast the often very volatile order intake of industrial companies (capital goods and durable consumer goods).
While most economic researchers focus on general forecasts of economic growth or on the development of the financial markets, hpo forecasting concentrates on the dynamics in the real economy. The focus is particularly on cyclical demand in the capital goods industry. Unlike developments in the financial markets, demand for machinery and other industrial goods is much less influenced by psychological effects - and can therefore be forecast more reliably with suitable models. The prerequisite for this is an understanding of the essential real economic relationships. This is precisely the strength of the Peter Meier Forecasting Model, which is used exclusively by hpo forecasting. It is a unique and very powerful instrument.
The forecasts are always put into the economic and political context by hpo and commented on. For this reason, hpo's forecasting experts are much sought-after speakers at conferences of industry associations, trade events or at management meetings.
Your forecasting advantages
Higher planning certainty
Companies use hpo order intake forecasts for capacity planning, the assessment of investment risks and other strategic decisions. In the planning process and at the latest in budgeting, every company depends on reliable forecasts of incoming orders. The more accurate these are, the better the planning succeeds. Numerous industrial companies have appreciated the high quality of hpo forecasts for years.
Industry and company focus
Each industry has its own economic pattern and reacts differently to changing economic conditions. Therefore, hpo maintains well over 200 industry forecasting models. The industry-specific business cycle patterns are modelled mathematically, because the differences can be considerable. Derived from one or more industry forecasting models and the consideration of customer data, the company-specific business cycle pattern is calculated.
Early recognition of economic turning points
The supreme discipline of forecasting activity is the prediction of economic turning points. hpo forecasting forecasts are based on the key insight that the economy functions similarly to an oscillating system. The systematic analysis of non-linear relationships in the economy is a decisive advantage of our model, which is reflected in our track record.
Independent second opinion on your company's order history
Companies are close to their customers, who can reflect the mood in the market well. With this information, short-term market events can usually be well assessed. The rule-based top-down approach of hpo complements the internal bottom-up view. In most cases, however, hpo forecasts are more accurate in the medium and longer term than internal planning. hpo forecasting has only one goal: to generate the most accurate forecasts possible for clients.
The economy as an oscillating system
The basics of the mathematical forecasting approach are described in the book
"The economy as an oscillating system" (Hanser Verlag, 2019) by Peter Meier. In addition to many examples and graphics, the book also offers concrete practical tips as well as an insight into typical business cycle patterns of individual industries.
Do you have any questions?
Walter Esposito
Head of Marketing and Business Development
